| 선물투자의 3대 원칙 -2 |
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런던타임즈 LONDONTIMES 
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선물투자의 두 번째 원칙은 추세선 투자이다.
모든 물리적인 움직임에는 운동의 법칙이 적용되고 추세선 투자는 관성의 법칙을 이용한 것이다.
주식시장의 움직임도 큰 추세든 작은 추세든 간에 한번 방향이 결정되면 한 동안 그 방향으로만 움직이는 경향이 있다.
주식시장의 기술적 분석지표들은 방향의 지속성을 이용한 것들이 대부분이고 선물투자에서 가장 손쉬운 성공 방법은 이 추세를 따라 매매하는 것이다.
초보든 프로든 간에 내가 이 추세선 투자를 강력히 권하는 이유는 단순히 이 방법이 주가의 움직이는 방향을 쉽게 알 수 있기 때문이 아니라 편승효과( band wagon effect)를 기대할 수 있기 때문이다.
육상선수에게 바람을 안고 달리는 것과 바람을 타고 달리는 것은 기록달성에 엄청난 차이가 있다. 선물 투자에서도 추세투자와 역추세 투자는 하늘과 땅의 차이가 있다. 지배적인 추세에 편승할 경우 그 성공확률은 대단히 높다.
굳이 바람을 안고 달리려는 사람을 간혹 볼 수 있는데 이들은 영웅심리가 대단히 강하거나 우월감이 강하거나 탐욕스럽거나 혹은 바보로서 확률에 기초한 선물투자를 하는데에는 적합하지 않은 성격의 소유자들이다.
상승추세란 저점(pivot)과 그 이전 저점의 연결선을 연장한 것으로 그 상승 움직임의 지지선 역할을 하게 된다.
반대로 하락 추세선은 직전고점과 그 이전 고점의 연결선을 연장한 것으로 추세의 저항선 역할을 하게 된다.
가장 간단한 거래방법은 어느 기간동안의 시작에서 진입하고 끝날 때 정리하는 방법이다. 필자의 처음 저서에서 기간 중 시뮬레이션 결과를 분석해 실어놓은 것이 있는데 그 때의 결과만 간단히 살펴보기로 하자.
월봉투자는 단순하게 월초에 진입하고 무조건 월말에 정리하는 것이다.
10년간의 월봉 챠트를 이용한 투자결과에서는 67.5%의 성공률을 보였다.
주초에 진입하고 주말에 정리하는 주봉이용에서는 70% 가 넘는 승률을 보였고 아침에 진입하고 오후에 정리하는 일봉 챠트에서는 65%의 성공확률을 보였다.
결국 이 통계는 복잡하게 생각할 것 없이 상승추세에서는 매수 우선 후 매도정리, 하락추세에서는 매도 진입 후 매수 정리라는 단순거래 방법이 실제로 성공확률이 높다는 것을 증명하는 것이다.
추세선을 따라 지지선과 저항선이 거의 평행선을 유지하며 가격등락이 그 안에서 반복적으로 이루어지는 터널을 추세대라고 하는데 추세대의 지지선과 저항선을 매매시점으로 잡는 것도 거래의 한 방법이다.
우리가 매매할 때 많은 기술적 분석지표들을 이용하는 데 상승추세에서는 매도지표가 잘 맞지 않고 하락추세에서는 매수지표가 잘 맞지 않는다.
즉 지표의 일정한 기준을 정해 매매한다면 상승추세와 하락추세에서는 그 기준을 달리하여야 한다는 것이다.
하락추세에서는 선 매도후 매수정리, 상승추세에서는 선 매수후 매도 정리의 원칙은 기술적 지표들의 신뢰확률과도 밀접한 관계가 있다.
< 런던타임즈 www.londontimes.tv >
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| 기사입력: 2008/07/14 [20:45] 최종편집: ⓒ 런던타임즈 |
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High heel secret
On saturday, Herds of women in fur coats bearing yellow Manolo Blahnik buying bags clogged the streets of New York.
Blahnik is the high end cobbler put on the map by Sex the City and it was opening day of Blahnik's BIG SALE at his flagship store on 54th St. between Fifth and Sixth Aves. with regard to resto actuallyck.
How can they afford to promote $1,600 shoes or boots for $350? exactly how much mark up is there on high end shoes anyway?
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orlando Louboutin, legendary for his red soles, Has usurped Blahnik as the go to shoe god; Blahnik is figure 2 with arriviste Jimmy Choo nipping at his heels. Is the Jessica Simpson knockoff of last louboutin cheap season's hot Louboutin four times second-rate?
We went to the experts: Leonard Simpson, CEO of the reasonably priced Town shoes chain and its budget line The Shoe Company; Debra Anissimoff, owner of up scale Zola Shoes; And master shoe repairer Alphonso Gallo of Bay Bloor Shoe Repair hand bags, 1240 fresh St. during rarefied Yorkville.
so why does Louboutin charge $310 for espadrilles, Which are principally rope and canvas?
"the reason is because they say Christian Louboutin, Simpson says next to the mark. "Leather differs but linen is linen. rope is rope,
He concedes which in turn Louboutin, Blahnik and Jimmy Choo you will discover holy trinity: You pay for their high quality materials, state-of-the-art styling and famous names.
positive, He knocks off ideal. Those $700 Blahniks costs $90 in Town Shoes and $50 at The Shoe Company. does he do it? sum.
Simpson offers up a seminar on "Hard and soft deals,
"Blahnik, Jimmy Choo and Louboutin will use the best quality of leather for lining, soles and outsides, he states. "there is also a foot and a half of leather in an average closed up shoe. Leather is sold for $1.50 a foot for affordable, To $10 once for all leather. a huge difference is $8, rrncluding a sole, Making a positive change of $10 in terms of components,
The big difference is human eye workmanship, "The time and care they take making the shoe, In stitches and cutting. The labour is 60 per cent of the money the shoe,
Then absolutely that cachet of "produced in Italy, Shoes created by Blahnik are made in Italy with kidskin and calfskin from France and Italy. Cheaper shoes are mass produced in China, Where labour costs are cheaper.
China is really a player than generally known, Simpson contends. "The manual work (asking price) In Italy is 10 times high. The workmanship in China is equal or better if they really spent the time. they give the upper (To china and tiawan) And stick it on a sole and fix the upper to the sole and it says Made in Italy,' when all they do is make the sole (In croatia),
Simpson says that the massive difference is R research and development.
"A Nike shoe costs $7 to make in China and retails for $145 want they put on the soft costs. These guys have to pay the designer and find new shapes and fittings. how to put a cost on that? mr. Blahnik has to make handsome profit for his name on the shoe.
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Simpson is connected to the biggest market, boomers, Who demand comfort and styles. His companies are putting a flex sole on a padded inner sole and a cheap louboutin heels cushion inside the woking platform and heel lift.
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There is also a snob appeal in paying some money.
,I'm tiring a Prada shirt,' they should say, sticking out their chests. Oscar De are generally Renta (selection) is probably $600. The Oscar line is $120 and it's any similar shoe,
At Zola running shoes, It is hard to come by a shoe under $100 unless you score a flat espadrille. Anissimoff's price points start at about $250 for a closed leather shoe. boots can go over $2,000 usually they are made of luxury skins like python or ostrich.
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"Once you pay the price point, If relative it is, You know that is a Prada shoe and do you know what these women have spent. They don't have a strong sense of style of their own.
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연재소개 |
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| 현대증권 런던 현지법인 사장, 미래투자자문 전무이사, 머니위즈 대표 등울 역임한 김용선생과 함께하는 <선물 따라잡기>
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